Mets to wrap up long trip with matinee against Nats

Baseball Betting Lines

09/08/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Apparently, winning four straight games just isn't the Washington Nationals' thing.

After failing to win more than three games in a row for the seventh time this season, Washington instead seeks a series victory over the New York Mets in today's finale of a three-game set at Nationals Park.

The Nationals were stifled in their attempt to win a fourth straight game by Mets starter Dillon Gee, who was making his major league debut in the place of the injured Johan Santana (pectoral strain). The 24-year-old was outstanding, carrying a no-hitter into the sixth inning before eventually yielding one run on two hits over seven frames.

Gee also drove in a run for the Mets, who got a three-run homer from Ike Davis to win for just the third time in nine contests on a 10-game road trip that wraps up this afternoon.

"That's been the joke with me all season in Triple-A. I think I had 20- something [at-bats] and not one hit, so it was nice to get one here," Gee said.

New York picked up the win despite third baseman David Wright being a late scratch due to a bruised left finger suffered during a stolen-base attempt on Monday. The former All-Star is day-to-day, while teammate Jose Reyes sat out his 11th consecutive game because of a right oblique strain.

Willie Harris' leadoff homer in the sixth frame spoiled Gee's no-hit bid and represented the lone run for the Nationals. Cuban Yuneski Maya, also making his MLB debut, allowed four runs over five innings to take the loss, though he did retire 11 of the final 12 batters he faced.

"The third inning, fourth inning, fifth inning, he got much better location with his breaking ball and pitched effectively a little more," said Nationals manager Jim Riggleman of Maya. "He just got better as it went along."

Today's finale will feature a pair of 35-year-olds in the Mets' R.A. Dickey and Livan Hernandez of the Nats, and both hurlers are coming off rough outings.

Dickey has allowed 13 runs over his last three starts and a season-high seven of those came in Friday's loss in Chicago, the knuckleballer's first setback since Aug. 8. Dickey fell to 9-6 with a 2.91 earned run average on the season.

The right-hander owns a pair of no-decisions against Washington this year despite allowing only two earned runs in 13 frames of work, and is 0-1 with a 4.86 ERA lifetime against the Nationals.

Hernandez, meanwhile, is 1-2 over his last three starts and has yielded 20 runs over that time. Pitching on Friday for the first time since signing a one-year contract extension on Aug. 29, the righty was drilled for eight runs -- tying a season high -- over just 4 1/3 innings of work.

Hernandez, who is 9-10 with a 3.81 ERA this year, has performed well versus the Mets this year, going 1-0 with a 1.33 ERA in three starts. The veteran has faced the club 35 times in his career and is 12-13 with a 4.29 ERA.

The Nationals have won eight of 14 versus the Mets this year, with the teams splitting eight games in Washington.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.